Tell me one sector that has escaped the impact of the Iran-US war. I genuinely cannot think of one.
A few days ago, we went to buy a sofa. The seller told us that foam prices have increased significantly because of the war and the prices are rising at a rate never seen before.
A day later, we called a contractor for some aluminium and glass work.
His response was almost identical saying that Aluminium prices have gone up sharply because of the war situation.
That is when I realised something important. People often think wars affect only oil companies, defence stocks or governments.
Reality is very different.
Every sector gets affected, directly or indirectly.
- Foam used in sofas is heavily linked to petrochemical derivatives. When crude oil prices rise, manufacturing costs rise with them.
- Aluminium prices have also surged globally due to supply chain disruptions, rising energy costs and uncertainty in commodity markets.
- Reports suggest aluminium prices have rallied nearly 45% over the past year amid ongoing Middle East tensions.
Then comes fuel.
We all know what has happened there.
Crude Oil have spiked past the $120-per-barrel mark in late April, reaching their highest levels since 2022 and India has already seen fuel price hikes and transportation costs across industries have started increasing again.
- Airlines alone are estimated to have taken nearly $15 billion in war-related losses.
- Companies like Toyota have warned about massive cost increases due to rising raw material prices.
- Whirlpool has cut forecasts as consumers are delaying purchases because of inflation.
- McDonald’s has warned that supply-chain disruptions are increasing long-term costs.
- Chemical and industrial companies are planning fresh price hikes due to petrochemical exposure.
The impact does not remain confined to the battlefield.
It silently enters households, invoices, factory costs and monthly budgets.
- What makes this crisis even more concerning is that its consequences may outlive the war itself.
- Even if the conflict slows down tomorrow, supply chains do not normalize overnight.
- Commodity markets do not suddenly become stable.
- Businesses do not immediately reverse price increases and inflationary pressure stays.
In fact, economists across the world are warning that the biggest damage from this conflict may not just be inflation but long-term uncertainty.
When uncertainty rises:
- Businesses delay expansion
- Consumers reduce spending
- Markets become volatile and economies slow down
Sometimes, the true cost of war is not measured in missiles. It is measured in the price of ordinary things people buy every single day.